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明天宾州初选的民调一种:希拉里还能走下去  

2008-04-22 11:45:46|  分类: 美国研究 USA Stu |  标签: |举报 |字号 订阅

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Pennsylvania Democratic Presidential Primary
Pennsylvania: Clinton 49% Obama 44%
 
Monday, April 21, 2008
 
The final Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of the Democratic Presidential Primary in Pennsylvania shows Hillary Clinton with 49% of the vote and Barack Obama with 44%. This election poll was conducted Sunday afternoon and evening.


Overall, with just one day to go, 7% of Pennsylvania voters remain undecided and 3% say there's a good chance they will change their mind. Rasmussen Markets data shows that Clinton is given a 92.6 % chance of winning in Pennsylvania at this time.


Early in 2008, most Democratic voters viewed both candidates favorably. That is no longer the case. Just 43% of Obama voters have a favorable opinion of Clinton. Only 42% of Clinton voters have a favorable opinion of Obama.


Overall, in the Keystone State, Clinton is now viewed favorably by 71% of Likely Democratic Primary Voters. Obama gets favorable reviews from 69%. Clinton's favorable ratings in the state peaked in early March at 77%. Obama's peaked in late March at 73%.


This is the fifth straight Rasmussen Reports poll of the race to show Clinton with a single-digit lead. In all five polls, Clinton's support has been between 47% and 50% while Obama's range has been from 41% to 44%. The demographic make-up of the state seems to favor Clinton, which has enabled her to retain a modest lead despite being significantly outspent by the Obama campaign.


Clinton leads by eighteen percentage points among White Voters and does especially well among White Women. Obama dominates among African-Americans. Obama leads among those who are politically liberal while Clinton has the edge among more moderate and conservative voters. Clinton leads among lower and middle income voters while Obama leads among those who earn more than $75,000 annually. Clinton leads among those who view the economy as the most important issue while Obama is the top choice for those who see the War in Iraq as the highest priority. Clinton leads among voters over 40 while Obama has the edge among younger voters.


It is far more challenging to project turnout in a Primary Election than a General Election. Fifty-eight percent (58%) of this survey sample are women, 42% men. Eleven percent (11%) are under 30 and 57% are over 50. Eighty-two percent (82%) are White and 15% African-American. Twenty-six percent (26%) make $75,000 per year or more. The degree to which actual turnout varies from these figures could have a significant impact on the final results.


Eighty percent (80%) of the Primary Voters say they are at least Somewhat Likely to vote for Clinton against John McCain in November. Seventy-six percent (76%) are Somewhat or Very Likely to vote for Obama against McCain.


Forty-four percent (44%) of Pennsylvania Primary voters view Obama as politically moderate. That's down from 48% just a few days ago. Thirty-seven percent (37%) view the Illinois Senator as politically liberal.


As for Clinton, 51% say she is politically moderate. That figure is up from 49% on Thursday. Nationally, among all voters, a majority see both Democratic candidates as politically liberal.


Forty-six percent (46%) say that, if Obama is nominated, he is Very Likely to be elected President. Another 29% say he is Somewhat Likely to win in November.


Clinton's numbers are virtually identical—50% say she would be Very Likely to win the White House and 30% say she would be Somewhat Likely to do so.


A separate survey found that both Democrats lead McCain in Pennsylvania. Nationally, McCain currently leads both Democrats in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll. Looking at the Electoral College, the race is essentially a Toss-Up.


See survey questions and toplines. Crosstabs available for Premium Members only.

 

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